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How to Evaluate an Idea Whose Time Has Come

Hi there -

Here is this week’s “1 principle, 2 strategies, and 3 actionable tactics” for running lean…

1 Universal Principle

“Well-timed ideas require the right combination of inflection, impact, and insight.”
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Timing is one of the top factors attributed to a startup’s success. But because most founders live in the future, they often find themselves too early to market with an idea whose time hasn’t yet come.

Being too early to market may even be worse than being too late, because you quickly figure out the latter but can waste years waiting with the former.

I was too early to market with my first three products. I spent two years trying to make them work until I pieced together that they were missing one or more key ingredients that made them unworkable.

Now I stress-test all my ideas against these ingredients. How do you time, or better yet, test the timing of your idea? That’s the topic of today’s issue.

2 Underlying Strategies at Play

I. Good ideas can come from anywhere.

We don’t control the Muse or understand where good ideas come from. But every idea can be traced back to one of three origin sources:

a) Inflection

Inflections are undeniable shifts or external events that create openings for something new.

How it happens: When founders encounter one or more inflections, they imagine new ways for solving existing problems.

Some examples:
- Technological shifts, e.g. introduction of ChatGPT and the Internet
- Environmental shifts, e.g. climate change), and
- Behavioral shifts, e.g. the Great Resignation and remote work).

b) Impact

Impact here is synonymous with an observed or experienced problem.

How it happens: When founders observe or experience a problem first-hand with measurable impact, they get inspired to fix it.

Some examples:
- Uber,
- Spanx, and
- Lean Canvas.

c) Insight

Insights allow us to see things others don’t. They often come in the form of accidental discoveries about problems, solutions, or people.

How it happens: When founders uncover better insights, they unlock better solutions that stick.

Some examples:
- Coca-cola,
- Microwave oven, and
- Slack.

II. Well-timed ideas need a combination of all three ingredients.

While most new ideas have at least one of these three ingredients present, you need all three to make the idea work.

Here are some common pitfalls when you miss one or more ingredients:

Well-timed idea = Inflection + Impact + Insight

3 Actionable Tactics

I. Traceback the origin story of your idea.

Identify what inspired you to act. Was it an inflection, impact, or insight?

II. Piece together the other missing ingredients.

Can you make a compelling evidence-based argument for the other two ingredients?

III. Stress-test your idea with prospects.

Pitch your idea to prospects hitting on all three ingredients. Do you find them nodding all the way? Do you inspire them to act by the end? If not, explore why not to make a pivot, persevere, or pause decision on your idea.

Have faith in yourself. Be ruthless with your ideas.

That's all for today. See you next week.

Ash
Author of ​​Running Lean​​ and creator of ​​Lean Canvas​

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