Hi there -
Here is this week’s “1 principle, 2 strategies, and 3 actionable tactics” for running lean…
1 Universal Principle
“Running experiments is NOT the most important activity.”
The Lean Startup methodology is the scientific method applied to entrepreneurship, and it's one of the foundational pillars of the Continuous Innovation Framework.
However, many people over-simplify the scientific method to running experiments. While running experiments is a key activity in science, it isn't the most important thing scientists do.
Can you guess what that is?
No, it isn’t formulating hypotheses, building models, or doing research, either.
Hint: The vast majority of scientific theories are rejected, not for failing experimental tests, but for containing (this thing).
The answer👇
2 Underlying Strategies at Play
I. The vast majority of scientific theories are rejected for containing bad explanations.
Consider the theory that eating a kilogram of grass is a cure for the common cold. That theory makes experimentally testable predictions: if people tried the grass cure and found it ineffective, the theory would be proved false.
Would you test this theory?
Probably not.
This theory has never been tested and probably never will be because it lacks a key ingredient: a good explanation.
I took this example from David Deutsch's book The Fabric of Reality.
Explanations get at why we should take a theory seriously. Without a good explanation, it is hard to justify spending resources on experiments, hypotheses, and models.
The same is true in startups.
II. Good explanations don’t require empirical experiments.
Albert Einstein is one of our most celebrated scientists, but he was bad at conducting experiments. He formulated the Theory of Relativity and had other scientists test it for him.
How did he get others to take his theory seriously?
The answer: His theory offered a good explanation. It was built on elegant math and offered a plausible and better explanation of how the universe worked that the prevailing theory at the time, built on Newtonian physics, could not explain.
He attributed not empirical experiments but thought experiments and simple models to his breakthrough.
Thought experiments stress-test a model or initial theory (conjecture) for good explanations.
In startups, one can similarly turn a big idea into a simple business model and then apply thought experiments that stress test the model for good explanations.
For instance, if a business model cannot scale to a desired size because the customer segment is too small, why would you pursue or test that segment?
I have assembled seven such thought experiments that can be used to test any business model for mission, clarity, desirability, viability, timing, feasibility, and defensibility. Take my business model design challenge if you’d like to stress test a new or existing idea against these seven dimensions.
Here’s how it works:
3 Actionable Tactics
I. Turn your idea into a concise, precise, and coherent business model.
You can’t test a broad, vague, or ambiguous idea, which is typically how ideas first materialize in our minds. The key to gaining clarity is deconstructing your idea so that it is:
- concise: Can be described on a single page (Lean Canvas),
- precise: Uses specific and measurable language and
- coherent: Offers a good explanation.
II. Clarity is just one of seven dimensions.
Getting others to see what you see is the first battle, but there’s much more to turning an idea into a working business model.
This is where other stress tests come in, where you view your business model through multiple perspectives and move jigsaw pieces around to drive more coherency, i.e., formulate strong explanations on:
- why your idea is worth pursuing,
- why customers will want your idea,
- why now for your idea?
- why you for your idea,
- how you will roll out your idea, and
- how you will defend against copycats,
III. A good explanation is a pre-requisite, not a replacement for testing.
Stress testing business models for good explanations avoids chasing painful dead ends. While it can easily save you hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars, it isn’t a substitute for testing, i.e., running experiments.
Testability (or falsifiability) is the process of verifying our explanation. It is the second most important activity in a startup.
But starting with plausible good explanations is still the first.
That’s all for today. See you next week.
Ash
Author of Running Lean and creator of Lean Canvas
.
.
P.S.
Whenever you're ready, there are 3 ways I can help you:
1 - Get my Just Start course: If you're new to this framework, you'll learn the key mindsets for building the next generation of products that matter.
2 - Take the 30-day Business Model Design Challenge: If you're an aspiring or early-stage founder looking to launch a new idea in 2025, join my next Business Model Design Challenge, where you'll learn how to design and stress-test your idea without wasting resources.
3 - Join LEANFoundry: Join 21k+ founders who use our tools, courses, and coaching resources to build and launch their products to paying customers. Works like a gym membership. Cancel anytime.
